What Makes Revolutions Succeed

Succeeding at revolution takes more than crowds. Three variables recur in the historical record.

First, the coercive apparatus must defect or divide: in 1917 Petrograd garrison regiments mutinied, while in 1989 Beijing units fired on the crowds. Second, revolutionaries need organization and a program, from the Jacobin clubs to Solidarity committees, to convert protest into durable power.

Third, external context matters: hostile intervention crushed Hungary in 1849 and 1956, while great power collapse birthed Poland in 1918 and the Baltic states in 1991. Nonviolent campaigns have historically succeeded more often than armed ones, largely because they are better at splitting security forces from the regime..